SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF HAND FOOT MOUTH DISEASE MODEL WITH PUBLIC HEALTH RESOURCES

Abstract

In this study, we proposed and analyzed a mathematical model to study the dynamics of hand foot mouth disease with effects of limited public health resources. The model is analysed using stability theory of differential equations and computer simulations. Sensitivity analysis is carried out to show the effects of model parameters to disease spread and control. The results showed that there were two equilibrium points; disease-free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium point. The qualitative behaviour results depended on the basic reproductive number (R0). We obtained the basic reproductive number by using the next generation matrix. Stabilities of the model are determined by Routh-Hurwitz criteria.
If R0 < 1, , then the disease- free equilibrium point is local asymptotically stable, but if R0 > 1, then the endemic equilibrium point is local asymptotically stable. The graphical representations are provided to qualitatively support the analytical results. It concluded that with an increase in the number of public health resources, the number of infected human will be reduced. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the transmission rate β was the most sensitive parameter to the basic reproductive number.‘