Southeast Asian Journal of Sciences

KRIGING STATISTICAL METHOD: APPLICATION TO PREDICT THE DAILY DEATH TOLL OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC IN VIET NAM

Nhut Nguyen Cong — 2024-04-19

COVID-19 was first reported in late 2019 in Wuhan, China, and has spread worldwide. It is caused by SARS-CoV-2, a coronavirus discovered in 2019. Infection with SARS-CoV-2 causes a wide range of disease severity, from asymptomatic to acute respiratory failure and death. Risk factors for severe illness include older age, immunosuppression, comorbidities (eg, diabetes, chronic kidney disease), and pregnancy. Vaccines are somewhat effective in preventing transmission and very effective in preventing serious illness and death. This study aims to predict the number of new deaths per day due to COVID-19 in Vietnam in the days without observational data and to predict the future death toll. The study used Covid-19 data from the World Health Organization (WHO). A total of 260 days were collected, and the author processed and normalized the data. Based on the data available dates, the author uses Kriging statistical method to build a predictive model. As a result, the author has selected a suitable forecasting model with a high-reliability data set, the regression coefficient and the correlation coefficient are close to 1, the error between the predicted results by the model compared with the data. The actual collection is very small, there are days when the prediction error is almost zero. The study has built a future forecast map of the number of new deaths per day due to COVID-19. The article concludes that the application of the Kriging statistical method is suitable for COVID-19 data. This study opens up new research directions for related fields such as earthquakes, mining, groundwater, environment, etc.

HIGH-ORDER CONVERGENCE OF AN ITERATIVE SCHEME FOR A NON-LOCAL WAVE EQUATION OF KERCHHOFF-CARRIER TYPE

Thanh Le Thi Mai — 2024-04-19

In this paper, an initial-boundary value problem for a KirchhoffCarrier type wave equation is considered. First, a recurrent sequence is constructed and associated with the proposed problem in which the nonlinear quantity on the right-hand side is expanded to Taylor series for multi- variable function. Next, by establishing some suitable conditions and inheriting same proofs of previous works, a theorem of local existence for the sequence is declared. Finally, a high-order convergent scheme is established and an error estimation is also obtained.

FORECASTING THE NUMBER OF COLLEGE STUDENTS IN THE US USING LONG SHORT-TERM MEMORY

Yen Nguyen Hoang — 2024-04-19

The long-term viability of educational institutions typically relies heavily on strategic planning, including effectively distributing resources and personnel, as well as setting aside funds for financial assistance and grants for new students. Therefore, accurately predicting student enrollment is essential for making important decisions based on past temporal data. In this paper, a time series algorithm named \long short-term memory" (LSTM) is utilized to forecast the number of college students in the US. For this purpose, a dataset containing the number of college students in the United States throughout the years is utilized for the training process in the LSTM to acquire an optimal LSTM model. Subsequently, this optimal model is employed to rapidly and reliably forecast the number of students in the upcoming years. The effective- ness and accuracy of the current method are validated by contrasting the obtained results with precise data.

DESIGNING AND OPTIMIZING OF MASK FORMULA FOR SENSITIVE SKIN FROM MINERAL MUD IN NINH HO

Hang Huynh Thi Minh — 2024-04-19

Background: Skin care is one of the important steps to have beautiful skin. In recent years, the trend of using cosmetic products of natural origin has developed in countries around the world as well as in Vietnam. With that trend, this study selected the mineral mud taken in Ninh Hoa, Khanh Hoa province and the medicinal plant green tea as raw materials to make pharmaceutical products which meet testing standards

Objective: Research a pharmaceutical product for sensitive skin from mineral mud and green tea with cleansing and skin care effects made from natural ingredients which meet testing standards.

Subjects and methods: From mineral mud and medicinal plant green tea, research to prepare a pharmaceutical product as ointment using emulsifying method combined with distributed method.

Results: Designed and optimized the mask formula for sensitive skin and established the basic standards for this mask preparation according to regulations of the Ministry of Health.

Conclusion: The study has prepared cosmeceutical products for sensitive skin of natural origin using local ingredients quality meeting the basic standards. Currently, although mineral mud in Ninh Hoa, Khanh Hoa province has been studied and has great potential, it has not been widely applied. Therefore, it is highly important to study new cosmeceuticals with cleansing and skin care benefits from local mineral mud resources.

RESEARCH ON THE PREPARATION OF RAPID RELEASE PARACETAMOL 325 MG TABLETS

Tai Vo The Anh — 2024-04-19

Paracetamol is an active ingredient that has been researched and widely used for a long time because of its effectiveness and safety. However, with conventional tablet forms, the active ingredient is usually released 30-45 minutes after taking the pill. This study was conducted with the aim of formulating and preparing rapid release paracetamol tablets which can release the active ingredient almost completely within 10 minutes from the time of drug administration into the gastrointestinal tract. Paracetamol 325 mg rapid release tablets are prepared by wet granulation method using common excipients for tablets such as: Amidon, Avicel PH101, lactose, polyvinyl pirolidone K30 (PVP K30), talc, magnesium stearate, and super-dissolving excipients sodium bicarbonate.

Semi-finished granules are tested for several criteria such as moisture, flow rate, apparent density Pressing 500 mg tablets using an 8-punches rotary tablet press with 10mm punches and dies. The results showed that the tablets were prepared according to the formulation F1 including paracetamol 325 mg; sodium bicarbonate 65 mg; Amidon 95 mg; PVP K30 15 mg; slippery excipients talc and magnesium stearate (1:1) at the ratio of 2% for the best survey criteria. Finished tablets have good drug release ability (over 90% of paracetamol dissolves after 10 minutes). The results of the study open the prospect of preparing and manufacturing paracetamol 325 mg rapid-release tablets.

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN DEPRESSION AND FRAILTY STATUS: A LONGITUDINAL COHORT STUDY

Lien To Thi — 2024-04-19

Frailty is a medical syndrome characterized by increased vulnerability to minor stressors and is preventable. Individuals who are depressed often experience worsening frailty status. This study aimed to investigate the factors associated with changes in frailty status and depressive symptoms, as well as the relationship between depressive symptoms and changes in frailty status over a four-year follow-up period. We utilized data from the 2007-2011 waves of the Taiwan Longitudinal Study on Aging (TSLA), involving adults over 65 years old (n = 1,283). Frailty was assessed using the Fried frailty phenotype, while depressive symptoms were measured using an 8-item version of the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D). A multinomial logistic regression analysis was conducted to identify the association between depressive symptoms and changes in frailty status over four years. Among the participants, 33.0% experienced worsening of their frailty status, 40.1% maintained their frailty status, and 11.6% showed improvement over the four-year period. Older adults with higher levels of depressive symptoms had a higher likelihood of frailty improvement (RRR = 1.147) compared to those with stable frailty status, after controlling for individual covariates, chronic diseases, and social support components across the entire study population and in analyses of both male and female subgroups. Being aged 75 years or older was predictive of an increased risk of frailty worsening across the entire cohort and was particularly observed in male participants. A history of heart disease was found to predict a lower likelihood of maintaining frailty stability across the entire cohort and was also observed in male participants. Preventing depressive symptoms among older adults may contribute to maintaining stability in frailty status over time.